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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ucam Murcia v Real Jaén: numbers & prediction

Segunda División RFEF Group 4 · Spain · Estadio de La Condomina

Ucam Murcia

LLDDW
1–2
FT

Real Jaén

WDWWW
Ucam Murcia 50%Draw 26%Real Jaén 24% Expected goals 1.73 – 1.24
76%
Betarazi pick

Ucam Murcia or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultUcam Murcia to win ✗50% · @1.91
Double chanceUcam Murcia or draw ✗76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.51

Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ucam Murcia welcome Real Jaén to Estadio de La Condomina for a Segunda División RFEF Group 4 fixture on Sunday 26 April (11:00 WAT).

Current form

Ucam Murcia, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to La Unión Atlético, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Real Jaén, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Yeclano, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Real Jaén, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.8 for Ucam Murcia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ucam Murcia 1.7 xG, Real Jaén 1.2 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 55% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ucam Murcia 50%, draw 26%, Real Jaén 24%.
  • Lower-risk option: Ucam Murcia or draw (76%) at 1.22.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Ucam Murcia or draw (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ucam Murcia 1–1 Real Jaén. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ucam Murcia50%fair 2.01 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.78 · @3.00
Real Jaén24%fair 4.19 · @3.90
2.97Expected goals
1.73Ucam Murcia xG
1.24Real Jaén xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–16%

From our goals model: Ucam Murcia 1.7 – 1.2 Real Jaén expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUcam Murcia to win ✗50%2.011.91
Double chanceUcam Murcia or draw ✗76%1.311.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.831.85
Draw no betUcam Murcia (draw no bet) ✗68%1.48–
Asian handicapReal Jaén +1 (Asian handicap) ✓66%1.51–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.26–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓57%1.76–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓65%1.53–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.22–
First team to scoreUcam Murcia to score first55%1.81–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓40%2.53–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ucam Murcia / FT Ucam Murcia ✗30%3.37–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.51–

Recent results

Ucam Murcia – last 6

LLDDWL
19 Apr@ La Unión Atlético1–4L
5 Apr@ Deportiva Minera0–2L
15 Marvs Linares Deportivo1–1D
8 Mar@ Yeclano1–1D
1 Marvs Melilla3–2W
22 Feb@ Estepona0–2L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Real Jaén – last 6

WDWWWW
15 Marvs Yeclano1–0W
8 Mar@ Linares Deportivo1–1D
1 Marvs Águilas3–1W
25 Feb@ Xerez Deportivo3–1W
22 Feb@ Melilla1–0W
15 Febvs Deportiva Minera2–0W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Ucam Murcia and Real Jaén.

Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén head-to-head page →

More Segunda División RFEF Group 4 predictions

League hub
FT Almería II3 Deportiva Minera4 116%10.00X26%4.20258%1.30 0.7–1.3xG 2Deportiva Minera to win 58%@1.30 ✓
FT Antoniano2 Recreativo Huelva0 128%3.40X27%2.80245%2.15 1.0–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.15 ✗
FT Estepona2 Águilas1 141%2.70X27%2.80232%2.60 1.5–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@1.91 ✓
FT Extremadura 19244 La Unión Atlético2 159%1.62X23%3.40218%4.75 2.0–1.0xG 1Extremadura 1924 to win 59%@1.62 ✓
FT Lorca Deportiva2 Yeclano2 138%2.62X30%2.70232%2.70 1.1–0.9xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@2.05 ✓
FT Puente Genil2 Málaga II1 153%1.55X24%3.60223%5.25 1.5–1.1xG 1Puente Genil to win 53%@1.55 ✓
FT Xerez Deportivo0 Xerez0 133%2.90X30%2.88237%2.40 1.0–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.05 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?

Our pick is Ucam Murcia or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?

On our numbers Ucam Murcia have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Real Jaén 24%.

How many goals will there be in Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?

Our predicted score is Ucam Murcia 1–1 Real Jaén, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén?

Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de La Condomina.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.