Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPerugia to win ✗50% · @1.73
Double chancePerugia or draw ✓77% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Perugia vs Athletic Carpi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 February the Serie C Girone B brings Perugia against Athletic Carpi at Stadio Renato Curi. Kick-off: 17:30 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Perugia 1.5 xG, Athletic Carpi 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Perugia 50%, draw 27%, Athletic Carpi 23%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (68%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Perugia 1–1 Athletic Carpi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Perugia50%fair 1.99 · @1.73
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.10
Athletic Carpi23%fair 4.38 · @5.00
2.54Expected goals
1.45Perugia xG
1.09Athletic Carpi xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Perugia 1.5 – 1.1 Athletic Carpi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Perugia
Athletic Carpi
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average
+13%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+17%
+0%
Our expected goals here
1.53
1.50
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Perugia to win✗
50%
1.99
1.73
Double chance
Perugia or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Perugia (draw no bet)
69%
1.45
–
Asian handicap
Athletic Carpi +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Perugia to score first✓
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Perugia / FT Perugia✗
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
Perugia
No recent results on record.
Athletic Carpi
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Perugia and Athletic Carpi.
What is the prediction for Perugia vs Athletic Carpi?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Perugia vs Athletic Carpi?
On our numbers Perugia have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Athletic Carpi 23%.
How many goals will there be in Perugia vs Athletic Carpi?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Perugia vs Athletic Carpi?
Our predicted score is Perugia 1–1 Athletic Carpi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Perugia vs Athletic Carpi?
Perugia vs Athletic Carpi (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Curi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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