Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
1
Value bet: Pontedera to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPontedera to win ✗35% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.09
Pontedera vs Gubbio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Pontedera v Gubbio in the Serie C Girone B, played at Stadio Ettore Mannucci.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pontedera 1.1 xG, Gubbio 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pontedera 35%, draw 29%, Gubbio 35%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Pontedera to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (62%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pontedera 1–1 Gubbio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pontedera35%fair 2.83 · @3.20
Draw29%fair 3.39 · @2.80
Gubbio35%fair 2.84 · @2.33
2.12Expected goals
1.14Pontedera xG
0.98Gubbio xG
52%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Pontedera 1.1 – 1.0 Gubbio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Pontedera
Gubbio
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average
-23%
-34%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.22
0.83
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pontedera to win✗
35%
2.83
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.42
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.00
Draw no bet
Pontedera (draw no bet)
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Gubbio +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Pontedera to score first✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pontedera / FT Pontedera✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.09
–
Recent results
Pontedera
No recent results on record.
Gubbio
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontedera and Gubbio.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Pontedera vs Gubbio?
On our numbers Pontedera have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Gubbio 35%.
How many goals will there be in Pontedera vs Gubbio?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontedera vs Gubbio?
Our predicted score is Pontedera 1–1 Gubbio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Pontedera vs Gubbio?
Pontedera vs Gubbio (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ettore Mannucci.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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