Value bet: Perugia to win @ 2.85 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPerugia to win ✓40% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.07
Vis Pesaro vs Perugia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:30 WAT, Sunday 29 March: Vis Pesaro v Perugia in the Serie C Girone B, played at Tonino Benelli. In the table, Vis Pesaro are 20th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 13 matches; Perugia are 12th (lower half) with 17. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vis Pesaro, last 4: WWDL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Juventus U23, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Perugia, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Torres, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vis Pesaro 1.2 xG, Perugia 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vis Pesaro 34%, draw 26%, Perugia 40%.
Price worth noting: Perugia to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Either team to win (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vis Pesaro 0–1 Perugia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vis Pesaro34%fair 2.93 · @2.45
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.95
Perugia40%fair 2.51 · @2.85
2.64Expected goals
1.17Vis Pesaro xG
1.47Perugia xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Vis Pesaro 1.2 – 1.5 Perugia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vis Pesaro
Perugia
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average
-24%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
+40%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.20
1.88
Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Perugia to win✓
40%
2.51
2.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Perugia (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Vis Pesaro +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Perugia to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Perugia / FT Perugia✗
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.07
–
Recent results
Vis Pesaro – last 4
WWDL
8 Mar
@ Juventus U23
3–1
W
4 Mar
vs Bra
2–1
W
1 Mar
vs Pontedera
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Campobasso FC
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Perugia – last 5
DDWWD
20 Mar
vs Torres
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Arezzo
1–1
D
9 Mar
vs Pontedera
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Livorno
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Athletic Carpi
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vis Pesaro and Perugia.
Our pick is Either team to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
On our numbers Vis Pesaro have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Perugia 40%.
How many goals will there be in Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
Our predicted score is Vis Pesaro 0–1 Perugia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
Vis Pesaro vs Perugia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Tonino Benelli.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pontedera0
Bra0