Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultArda Kardzhali to win ✓48% · @1.80
Double chanceArda Kardzhali or draw ✓75% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.38
Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 March the First League brings Septemvri Sofia against Arda Kardzhali at Stadion Dragalevtsi. Kick-off: 11:30 WAT. In the table, Septemvri Sofia are 12th, in the drop zone, on 11 points after 14 matches; Arda Kardzhali are 6th (upper half) with 21.
Current form
Septemvri Sofia, last 4: LLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Lokomotiv Sofia, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Arda Kardzhali, last 4: WDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Dobrudzha, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Arda Kardzhali, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Septemvri Sofia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Septemvri Sofia 1.1 xG, Arda Kardzhali 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Septemvri Sofia 25%, draw 27%, Arda Kardzhali 48%.
Lower-risk option: Arda Kardzhali or draw (75%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Arda Kardzhali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Septemvri Sofia25%fair 4.00 · @4.20
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @3.25
Arda Kardzhali48%fair 2.09 · @1.80
2.45Expected goals
1.07Septemvri Sofia xG
1.38Arda Kardzhali xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
1–29%
0–09%
0–28%
From our goals model: Septemvri Sofia 1.1 – 1.4 Arda Kardzhali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arda Kardzhali to win✓
48%
2.09
1.80
Double chance
Arda Kardzhali or draw✓
75%
1.33
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Arda Kardzhali (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Septemvri Sofia +1 (Asian handicap)✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Arda Kardzhali to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arda Kardzhali / FT Arda Kardzhali✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.38
–
Recent results
Septemvri Sofia – last 4
LLLW
17 Mar
@ Lokomotiv Sofia
0–3
L
13 Mar
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Botev Plovdiv
0–2
L
16 Feb
vs Montana
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Arda Kardzhali – last 4
WDWD
16 Mar
vs Dobrudzha
2–0
W
4 Mar
@ Cherno More Varna
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Spartak Varna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Beroe
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Septemvri Sofia and Arda Kardzhali.
What is the prediction for Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
On our numbers Septemvri Sofia have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Arda Kardzhali 48%.
How many goals will there be in Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
Our predicted score is Septemvri Sofia 1–1 Arda Kardzhali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali (First League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dragalevtsi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
