Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.64
Pavia vs Castellanzese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Sunday 22 March: Pavia v Castellanzese in the Serie D Girone B, played at Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
Current form
Pavia, last 4: DDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Villa Valle, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Castellanzese, last 4: DWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Varesina, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pavia 1.1 xG, Castellanzese 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pavia 33%, draw 27%, Castellanzese 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (57%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pavia 1–1 Castellanzese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pavia33%fair 3.05 · @2.80
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.20
Castellanzese41%fair 2.46 · @2.25
2.40Expected goals
1.12Pavia xG
1.28Castellanzese xG
46%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.1 – 1.3 Castellanzese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellanzese to win✗
41%
2.46
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Draw no bet
Castellanzese (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Pavia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Castellanzese to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellanzese / FT Castellanzese✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.64
–
Recent results
Pavia – last 4
DDWW
15 Mar
@ Villa Valle
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Varesina
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Sondrio
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Brusaporto
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Castellanzese – last 4
DWLW
18 Mar
@ Varesina
2–2
D
1 Mar
vs Vogherese
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Brusaporto
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Villa Valle
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Castellanzese.
What is the prediction for Pavia vs Castellanzese?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Pavia vs Castellanzese?
On our numbers Pavia have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Castellanzese 41%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Castellanzese?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs Castellanzese?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–1 Castellanzese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs Castellanzese?
Pavia vs Castellanzese (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Milan II2
Sondrio2
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo2
Brusaporto1
USD Casatese0
Varesina1
Caldiero Terme3
Real Calepina1
Leon Monza e Brianza3
Vogherese2