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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

USD Casatese v Pavia: numbers & prediction

Serie D Girone B · Italy · Campo Sportivo Comunale

USD Casatese

WWLLD
1–0
FT

Pavia

LWDDW
USD Casatese 54%Draw 25%Pavia 21% Expected goals 1.53 – 0.89
55%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.81 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.75Odds

Picks by market

ResultUSD Casatese to win ✓54% · @1.70
Double chanceUSD Casatese or draw ✓79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.35

USD Casatese vs Pavia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

USD Casatese welcome Pavia to Campo Sportivo Comunale for a Serie D Girone B fixture on Sunday 19 April (14:00 WAT).

Current form

USD Casatese, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Castellanzese, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Pavia, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Leon Monza e Brianza, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Pavia, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for USD Casatese.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give USD Casatese 1.5 xG, Pavia 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 45%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – USD Casatese 54%, draw 25%, Pavia 21%.
  • Lower-risk option: USD Casatese or draw (79%) at 1.17.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (55%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: USD Casatese 1–0 Pavia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

USD Casatese54%fair 1.85 · @1.70
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.50
Pavia21%fair 4.69 · @4.20
2.42Expected goals
1.53USD Casatese xG
0.89Pavia xG
45%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%

From our goals model: USD Casatese 1.5 – 0.9 Pavia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUSD Casatese to win ✓54%1.851.70
Double chanceUSD Casatese or draw ✓79%1.271.17
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓55%1.80–
Draw no betUSD Casatese (draw no bet) ✓72%1.39–
Asian handicapPavia +1 (Asian handicap)64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗70%1.44–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓55%1.811.75
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.29–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scoreUSD Casatese to score first ✓58%1.74–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.26–
Half-time / full-timeHT USD Casatese / FT USD Casatese ✓31%3.18–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14%7.35–

Recent results

USD Casatese – last 6

WWLLDD
2 Aprvs Castellanzese1–0W
29 Mar@ Villa Valle1–0W
22 Marvs Varesina0–1L
15 Mar@ Sondrio1–3L
1 Marvs Brusaporto1–1D
22 Feb@ Folgore Caratese1–1D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Pavia – last 6

LWDDWW
2 Apr@ Leon Monza e Brianza1–3L
22 Marvs Castellanzese1–0W
15 Mar@ Villa Valle0–0D
1 Marvs Varesina1–1D
22 Feb@ Sondrio2–1W
15 Febvs Brusaporto1–0W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between USD Casatese and Pavia.

USD Casatese vs Pavia head-to-head page →

More Serie D Girone B predictions

League hub
FT Caldiero Terme1 Villa Valle1 144%2.10X26%3.30230%3.00 1.4–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 55%@1.70 ✓
FT Chievo2 Castellanzese2 157%1.73X23%3.50220%4.00 1.7–1.0xG 1Chievo to win 57%@1.73 ✗
FT Milan II0 Varesina1 156%1.85X24%3.40220%3.50 1.8–1.0xG 1XMilan II or draw 80%@1.22 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for USD Casatese vs Pavia?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win USD Casatese vs Pavia?

On our numbers USD Casatese have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pavia 21%.

How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Pavia?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for USD Casatese vs Pavia?

Our predicted score is USD Casatese 1–0 Pavia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is USD Casatese vs Pavia?

USD Casatese vs Pavia (Serie D Girone B) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Sportivo Comunale.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.