Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Recanatese travel to face Castelfidardo Calcio on Sunday 15 March in the Serie D Girone F, with Nuovo Stadio Comunale G.Mancini the venue – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT.
Current form
Castelfidardo Calcio, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ostia Mare, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Recanatese, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Unipomezia, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Castelfidardo Calcio, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Recanatese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castelfidardo Calcio 1.6 xG, Recanatese 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castelfidardo Calcio 42%, draw 25%, Recanatese 32%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.82.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castelfidardo Calcio 1–1 Recanatese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castelfidardo Calcio42%fair 2.36 · @2.40
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.10
Recanatese32%fair 3.10 · @2.75
2.84Expected goals
1.58Castelfidardo Calcio xG
1.26Recanatese xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–17%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Castelfidardo Calcio 1.6 – 1.3 Recanatese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castelfidardo Calcio to win✓
42%
2.36
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.82
Draw no bet
Castelfidardo Calcio (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Recanatese +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.24
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.08
First team to score
Castelfidardo Calcio to score first
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castelfidardo Calcio / FT Castelfidardo Calcio✓
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.90
–
Recent results
Castelfidardo Calcio – last 3
LWL
1 Mar
@ Ostia Mare
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Victor San Marino
3–2
W
15 Feb
@ Atletico Ascoli
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Recanatese – last 3
LDL
1 Mar
vs Unipomezia
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico Ascoli
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Ostia Mare
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castelfidardo Calcio and Recanatese.
What is the prediction for Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese?
On our numbers Castelfidardo Calcio have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Recanatese 32%.
How many goals will there be in Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese?
Our predicted score is Castelfidardo Calcio 1–1 Recanatese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese?
Castelfidardo Calcio vs Recanatese (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Nuovo Stadio Comunale G.Mancini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sora0
Sammaurese1
Unipomezia1