Ancona vs Notaresco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ancona welcome Notaresco to Stadio del Conero for a Serie D Girone F fixture on Sunday 3 May (14:00 WAT). In the table, Ancona are 3rd, among the top four, on 21 points after 11 matches; Notaresco are 8th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
Ancona, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Sammaurese, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Notaresco, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Victor San Marino, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ancona 1.5 xG, Notaresco 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ancona 56%, draw 26%, Notaresco 18%.
Lower-risk option: Ancona or draw (82%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ancona 1–0 Notaresco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ancona56%fair 1.79 · @1.73
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.35
Notaresco18%fair 5.51 · @4.60
2.33Expected goals
1.53Ancona xG
0.80Notaresco xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ancona 1.5 – 0.8 Notaresco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ancona to win✗
56%
1.79
1.73
Double chance
Ancona or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.95
Draw no bet
Ancona (draw no bet)
75%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Notaresco +1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Ancona to score first✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ancona / FT Ancona✗
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.97
–
Recent results
Ancona – last 6
WLWDWW
19 Apr
vs Sammaurese
3–0
W
2 Apr
vs Teramo
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ Vigor Senigallia
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Sora
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1 Mar
vs Maceratese
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Notaresco – last 6
LWWLWW
26 Apr
vs Victor San Marino
1–2
L
19 Apr
@ Termoli Calcio
2–1
W
2 Apr
@ L'Aquila
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Teramo
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Sammaurese
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Sora
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Notaresco.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ancona vs Notaresco?
On our numbers Ancona have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Notaresco 18%.
How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Notaresco?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Notaresco?
Our predicted score is Ancona 1–0 Notaresco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ancona vs Notaresco?
Ancona vs Notaresco (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ostia Mare0
Chieti1