Value bet: Manfredonia to win @ 3.66 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPaganese to win ✗39% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · fair 1.37
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.83
Manfredonia vs Paganese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paganese travel to face Manfredonia on Sunday 15 March in the Serie D Girone H, with Stadio Miramare the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT.
Current form
Manfredonia, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Real Normanna, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Paganese, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Barletta, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Manfredonia 1.2 xG, Paganese 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Manfredonia 34%, draw 27%, Paganese 39%.
Price worth noting: Manfredonia to win @3.66 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Either team to win (73%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Manfredonia 1–0 Paganese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Manfredonia34%fair 2.93 · @3.66
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.05
Paganese39%fair 2.56 · @2.04
2.27Expected goals
1.17Manfredonia xG
1.10Paganese xG
47%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Manfredonia 1.2 – 1.1 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
39%
2.56
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
–
Draw no bet
Paganese (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Paganese +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Manfredonia to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manfredonia / FT Manfredonia✗
21%
4.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.83
–
Recent results
Manfredonia – last 3
LWL
1 Mar
@ Real Normanna
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Ferrandina
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Martina Franca
3–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Paganese – last 3
LDW
1 Mar
vs Barletta
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sarnese
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manfredonia and Paganese.
What is the prediction for Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 73% chance.
Who will win Manfredonia vs Paganese?
On our numbers Manfredonia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Paganese 39%.
How many goals will there be in Manfredonia vs Paganese?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Manfredonia 1–0 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Manfredonia vs Paganese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Miramare.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Città di Fasano2
Ferrandina1
Afragolese1
Nola 19251
Sarnese2
Heraclea0
Barletta3