Paganese 37%Draw 26%Martina Franca 37%Expected goals 1.17 – 1.21
59%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Martina Franca to win @ 2.88 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMartina Franca to win ✗37% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.92
Paganese vs Martina Franca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paganese welcome Martina Franca to Stadio Marcello Torre for a Serie D Girone H fixture on Sunday 22 March (15:00 WAT).
Current form
Paganese, last 4: LLDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Manfredonia, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Martina Franca, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Ferrandina, at home. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Martina Franca, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.0 for Paganese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paganese 1.2 xG, Martina Franca 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paganese 37%, draw 26%, Martina Franca 37%.
Price worth noting: Martina Franca to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paganese 1–1 Martina Franca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paganese37%fair 2.70 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.10
Martina Franca37%fair 2.70 · @2.88
2.38Expected goals
1.17Paganese xG
1.21Martina Franca xG
46%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Paganese 1.2 – 1.2 Martina Franca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Martina Franca to win✗
37%
2.70
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
–
Draw no bet
Martina Franca (draw no bet)✗
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Paganese +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Martina Franca to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Martina Franca / FT Martina Franca✗
21%
4.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.92
–
Recent results
Paganese – last 4
LLDW
15 Mar
@ Manfredonia
1–3
L
1 Mar
vs Barletta
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sarnese
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Martina Franca – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Ferrandina
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Pompei
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Manfredonia
4–3
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Martina Franca.
What is the prediction for Paganese vs Martina Franca?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Paganese vs Martina Franca?
On our numbers Paganese have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Martina Franca 37%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Martina Franca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paganese vs Martina Franca?
Our predicted score is Paganese 1–1 Martina Franca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Paganese vs Martina Franca?
Paganese vs Martina Franca (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ferrandina1
Barletta2
Afragolese2
Città di Fasano2
Heraclea1
Sarnese1