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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Heraclea v Sarnese: numbers & prediction

Serie D Girone H · Italy · Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria

Heraclea

LLDW
1–1
FT

Sarnese

WDD
Heraclea 34%Draw 25%Sarnese 41% Expected goals 1.16 – 1.44
73%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.27Odds
2

Value bet: Sarnese to win @ 2.65 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultSarnese to win ✗41% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · fair 1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.18

Heraclea vs Sarnese: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 22 March the Serie D Girone H brings Heraclea against Sarnese at Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT.

Current form

Heraclea, last 4: LLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fidelis Andria, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Sarnese, last 3: WDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gravina, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Sarnese, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Heraclea.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Heraclea 1.2 xG, Sarnese 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Heraclea 34%, draw 25%, Sarnese 41%.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.78.
  • Price worth noting: Sarnese to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 41%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Heraclea 1–1 Sarnese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Heraclea34%fair 2.97 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Sarnese41%fair 2.41 · @2.65
2.60Expected goals
1.16Heraclea xG
1.44Sarnese xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%

From our goals model: Heraclea 1.2 – 1.4 Sarnese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSarnese to win ✗41%2.412.65 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75%1.33–
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓59%1.681.78 ▲
Draw no betSarnese (draw no bet)55%1.81–
Asian handicapHeraclea +1 (Asian handicap) ✓73%1.37–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72%1.401.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓52%1.911.74
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.371.27
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.161.09
First team to scoreSarnese to score first51%1.95–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Sarnese / FT Sarnese ✗26%3.90–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.18–

Recent results

Heraclea – last 4

LLDW
15 Mar@ Fidelis Andria0–1L
1 Marvs Virtus Francavilla1–3L
22 Feb@ Nardò0–0D
15 Febvs Real Acerrana1–0W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Sarnese – last 3

WDD
15 Marvs Gravina2–0W
22 Febvs Paganese1–1D
15 Feb@ Real Normanna2–2D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Heraclea and Sarnese.

Heraclea vs Sarnese head-to-head page →

More Serie D Girone H predictions

League hub
FT Paganese3 Martina Franca2 137%2.25X26%3.10237%2.88 1.2–1.2xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 59%@1.53 ✗
FT Real Normanna3 Ferrandina1 154%1.90X25%3.10221%3.75 1.4–0.7xG 1XReal Normanna or draw 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Gravina0 Barletta2 125%6.25X26%3.50248%1.48 1.1–1.2xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 61%@1.50 ✓
FT Afragolese2 Fidelis Andria1 141%2.17X28%3.10231%3.25 1.2–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Città di Fasano2 Manfredonia1 152%1.70X25%3.40223%4.20 1.4–1.0xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 56%@1.67 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Heraclea vs Sarnese?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.

Who will win Heraclea vs Sarnese?

On our numbers Heraclea have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sarnese 41%.

How many goals will there be in Heraclea vs Sarnese?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Heraclea vs Sarnese?

Our predicted score is Heraclea 1–1 Sarnese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Heraclea vs Sarnese?

Heraclea vs Sarnese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.