Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultSambiase to win ✓39% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.11
Messina vs Sambiase: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sambiase travel to face Messina on Sunday 22 February in the Serie D Girone I, with Stadio San Filippo the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Messina 1.0 xG, Sambiase 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Messina 34%, draw 28%, Sambiase 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (63%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Messina 0–1 Sambiase. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Messina34%fair 2.96 · @2.50
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.00
Sambiase39%fair 2.60 · @2.60
2.10Expected goals
0.95Messina xG
1.15Sambiase xG
44%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–012%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Messina 1.0 – 1.1 Sambiase expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sambiase to win✓
39%
2.60
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
–
Draw no bet
Sambiase (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Messina +1 (Asian handicap)
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Sambiase to score first✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sambiase / FT Sambiase✓
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.11
–
Recent results
Messina – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Reggina
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sambiase – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Igea Virtus
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Messina and Sambiase.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Messina vs Sambiase?
On our numbers Messina have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sambiase 39%.
How many goals will there be in Messina vs Sambiase?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Messina vs Sambiase?
Our predicted score is Messina 0–1 Sambiase, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Messina vs Sambiase?
Messina vs Sambiase (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Filippo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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