14:00 WAT, Thursday 16 April: Səbail v Şimal in the Birinci Dasta, played at ASCO Arena. In the table, Səbail are 5th, upper half, on 12 points after 7 matches; Şimal are 6th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Səbail, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Safa Baku, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Şimal, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Mingəçevir, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Səbail, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Şimal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Səbail 2.3 xG, Şimal 0.8 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Səbail 72%, draw 17%, Şimal 11%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.15.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 2.15 – longer than our fair 1.77, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Səbail 2–1 Şimal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Səbail72%fair 1.38 · @1.15
Draw17%fair 5.95 · @6.00
Şimal11%fair 9.25 · @11.00
3.13Expected goals
2.28Səbail xG
0.84Şimal xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Səbail 2.3 – 0.8 Şimal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Səbail to win✓
72%
1.38
1.15
Double chance
Səbail or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Səbail (draw no bet)✓
87%
1.15
–
Asian handicap
Səbail -1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Səbail to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Səbail ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Səbail / FT Səbail✓
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Səbail – last 6
LWDWWD
9 Apr
@ Safa Baku
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Baku Sportinq
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs MOIK
2–2
D
12 Mar
@ Mingəçevir
1–0
W
6 Mar
@ Cəbrayıl
4–1
W
24 Feb
vs Baku Sportinq
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Şimal – last 6
LLDLWW
9 Apr
vs Mingəçevir
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Şahdağ
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Zaqatala
0–0
D
11 Mar
vs Safa Baku
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Zaqatala
4–3
W
24 Feb
vs Cəbrayıl
3–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Səbail and Şimal.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Səbail vs Şimal?
On our numbers Səbail have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Şimal 11%.
How many goals will there be in Səbail vs Şimal?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Səbail vs Şimal?
Our predicted score is Səbail 2–1 Şimal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Səbail vs Şimal?
Səbail vs Şimal (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at ASCO Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Safa Baku0
Difai Ağsu1