Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
1
Value bet: Tusker to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTusker to win ✓37% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.28
Tusker vs Homeboyz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tusker welcome Homeboyz to Police Sacco Stadium for a FKF Premier League fixture on Sunday 15 March (12:00 WAT). In the table, Tusker are 11th, lower half, on 6 points after 4 matches; Homeboyz are 17th (in the drop zone) with 5. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tusker, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Kariobangi Sharks, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Homeboyz, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over APS Bomet, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Homeboyz, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Tusker.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tusker 1.2 xG, Homeboyz 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tusker 37%, draw 29%, Homeboyz 35%.
Price worth noting: Tusker to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tusker 1–0 Homeboyz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tusker37%fair 2.74 · @3.00
Draw29%fair 3.48 · @2.80
Homeboyz35%fair 2.88 · @2.35
2.15Expected goals
1.17Tusker xG
0.97Homeboyz xG
46%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Tusker 1.2 – 1.0 Homeboyz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tusker
Homeboyz
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+9%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.33
0.87
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tusker to win✓
37%
2.74
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Draw no bet
Tusker (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Homeboyz +1 (Asian handicap)✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Tusker to score first✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tusker / FT Tusker✓
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.28
–
Recent results
Tusker – last 3
WWL
2 Mar
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Shabana
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Homeboyz – last 4
WDWW
2 Mar
vs APS Bomet
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Sofapaka
2–0
W
13 Feb
@ Bidco United
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tusker and Homeboyz.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Tusker vs Homeboyz?
On our numbers Tusker have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Homeboyz 35%.
How many goals will there be in Tusker vs Homeboyz?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tusker vs Homeboyz?
Our predicted score is Tusker 1–0 Homeboyz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Tusker vs Homeboyz?
Tusker vs Homeboyz (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Police Sacco Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks2