Homeboyz 50%Draw 24%Mathare United 26%Expected goals 1.31 – 0.79
84%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
–Odds
Picks by market
ResultHomeboyz to win ✓50% · fair 1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.31
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.25
Homeboyz vs Mathare United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Homeboyz welcome Mathare United to Bukhungu Stadium for a FKF Premier League fixture on Saturday 4 April (13:00 WAT). In the table, Homeboyz are 17th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 5 matches; Mathare United are 16th (in the drop zone) with 5. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Homeboyz, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Posta Rangers FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Mathare United, last 3: DLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Murang'a SEAL, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Homeboyz, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Mathare United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Homeboyz 1.3 xG, Mathare United 0.8 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Homeboyz 50%, draw 24%, Mathare United 26%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (84%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Homeboyz 1–0 Mathare United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Homeboyz50%fair 1.98
Draw24%fair 4.19
Mathare United26%fair 3.89
2.10Expected goals
1.31Homeboyz xG
0.79Mathare United xG
43%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–113%
0–012%
2–010%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: Homeboyz 1.3 – 0.8 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Homeboyz
Mathare United
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
+2%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.29
0.75
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Homeboyz to win✓
50%
1.98
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Homeboyz (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.51
–
Asian handicap
Mathare United +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Homeboyz to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Homeboyz / FT Homeboyz✓
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.25
–
Recent results
Homeboyz – last 6
WDLWDW
28 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Bandari
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Tusker
0–2
L
2 Mar
vs APS Bomet
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Sofapaka
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mathare United – last 3
DLD
22 Mar
@ Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Homeboyz and Mathare United.
What is the prediction for Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 84% chance.
Who will win Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Homeboyz have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mathare United 26%.
How many goals will there be in Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Our predicted score is Homeboyz 1–0 Mathare United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Homeboyz vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Bukhungu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks0