Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✓41% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.65
Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 18 March the Serie A brings Atletico Paranaense against Cruzeiro at Arena da Baixada. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Cruzeiro are 3rd (among the top four) with 60.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 4: LDLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Fluminense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Cruzeiro, last 4: DLDW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Vasco DA Gama, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cruzeiro, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.6 xG, Cruzeiro 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 52% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 41%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 34%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.33, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Cruzeiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense41%fair 2.45 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.25
Cruzeiro34%fair 2.90 · @3.05
3.04Expected goals
1.56Atletico Paranaense xG
1.49Cruzeiro xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.6 – 1.5 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
Attack vs Serie A average
+14%
+35%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
-1%
Our expected goals here
1.72
1.77
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✓
41%
2.45
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Cruzeiro +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.08
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✓
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.65
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 4
LDLL
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 4
DLDW
16 Mar
vs Vasco DA Gama
3–3
D
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Cruzeiro.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cruzeiro 34%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
