Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCorinthians to win ✓46% · @1.84
Double chanceCorinthians or draw ✓74% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.28
Corinthians vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico-MG travel to face Corinthians on Sunday 24 May in the Serie A, with Neo Química Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Corinthians are 17th, lower half, on 37 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: DLWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Penarol, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Atletico-MG, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cienciano, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico-MG, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.2 xG, Atletico-MG 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 46%, draw 28%, Atletico-MG 26%.
Lower-risk option: Corinthians or draw (74%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians46%fair 2.17 · @1.84
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @3.30
Atletico-MG26%fair 3.83 · @4.45
2.26Expected goals
1.23Corinthians xG
1.03Atletico-MG xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.2 – 1.0 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
-15%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.05
1.14
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win✓
46%
2.17
1.84
Double chance
Corinthians or draw✓
74%
1.35
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Corinthians (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Corinthians to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.28
–
Recent results
Corinthians – last 6
DLWDLW
22 May
@ Penarol
1–1
D
17 May
@ Botafogo
1–3
L
14 May
vs Barra
1–0
W
7 May
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
4 May
@ Mirassol
1–2
L
1 May
vs Penarol
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
WDWLWW
21 May
vs Cienciano
2–0
W
5 May
@ Juventud
2–2
D
3 May
@ Cruzeiro
3–1
W
30 Apr
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Ceara
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Corinthians vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Atletico-MG 26%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Atletico-MG?
Corinthians vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
