Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.60 – our chance 33% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.43
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 9 October the Serie A brings Atletico Paranaense against Atletico-MG at Arena da Baixada. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Bahia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Atletico-MG, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over RB Bragantino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.4 xG, Atletico-MG 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 43%, draw 24%, Atletico-MG 33%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Atletico-MG to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.69, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense43%fair 2.32 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Atletico-MG33%fair 3.05 · @3.60
2.57Expected goals
1.39Atletico Paranaense xG
1.18Atletico-MG xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.4 – 1.2 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✗
43%
2.32
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.43
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
WDLDWD
20 Sep
vs Bahia
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Coritiba
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Fluminense
3–3
D
25 Aug
@ Botafogo
3–2
W
15 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
WDWWLL
3 Oct
vs RB Bragantino
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Santos
4–2
W
12 Sep
vs Fluminense
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Santos
0–2
L
5 Sep
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 33%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
