Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓66% · @1.53
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.68
Palmeiras vs Bahia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bahia travel to face Palmeiras on Friday 9 October in the Serie A, with Nubank Parque the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Bahia are 6th (upper half) with 53. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Gremio, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Bahia, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Paranaense, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Bahia, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Palmeiras.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 1.9 xG, Bahia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 66%, draw 21%, Bahia 13%.
Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (87%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Palmeiras to win (66%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras66%fair 1.51 · @1.53
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @4.00
Bahia13%fair 7.96 · @5.00
2.61Expected goals
1.92Palmeiras xG
0.69Bahia xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.9 – 0.7 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bahia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Nubank Parque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
