Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓44% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Palmeiras travel to face Atletico Paranaense on Saturday 17 October in the Serie A, with Arena da Baixada the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Chapecoense-sc, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Palmeiras, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fluminense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.2 xG, Palmeiras 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 33%, draw 23%, Palmeiras 44%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense33%fair 3.04 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.20
Palmeiras44%fair 2.26 · @2.38
2.63Expected goals
1.19Atletico Paranaense xG
1.44Palmeiras xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.2 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
44%
2.26
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.70
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.26
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
WDWDLD
12 Oct
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–1
W
9 Oct
vs Atletico-MG
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Bahia
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Coritiba
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Fluminense
3–3
D
2.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
WWWDLW
15 Oct
@ Fluminense
2–1
W
11 Oct
vs Corinthians
4–1
W
9 Oct
vs Bahia
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Gremio
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ LDU de Quito
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Sao Paulo
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Palmeiras 44%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
