Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓61% · @1.53
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓82% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico-MG welcome Coritiba to MRV Arena for a Serie A fixture on Saturday 17 October (22:30 WAT). In the table, Atletico-MG are 7th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; Coritiba are 12th (lower half) with 42.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Atletico Torque, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 5. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Coritiba, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Botafogo, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Atletico-MG, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.8 for Coritiba.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.8 xG, Coritiba 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 61%, draw 20%, Coritiba 18%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico-MG to win (61%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG61%fair 1.64 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @3.90
Coritiba18%fair 5.41 · @5.50
2.70Expected goals
1.83Atletico-MG xG
0.87Coritiba xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.8 – 0.9 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
61%
1.64
1.53
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.80
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Atletico-MG ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Atletico-MG – last 6
WWDWDW
14 Oct
vs Atletico Torque
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Santos
2–1
W
9 Oct
@ Atletico Paranaense
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs RB Bragantino
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Santos
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 6
DLLDLW
12 Oct
vs Botafogo
1–1
D
9 Oct
@ Fluminense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–5
L
12 Sep
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–3
D
6 Sep
vs Mirassol
1–2
L
1 Sep
@ Remo
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Coritiba.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our pick is Atletico-MG to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Coritiba 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Coritiba?
Atletico-MG vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
