Bahia 61%Draw 21%Sao Paulo 19%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.78
81%
Betarazi pick
Bahia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBahia to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
Bahia vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sao Paulo travel to face Bahia on Thursday 29 October in the Serie A, with Arena Fonte Nova the venue – the ball rolls at 01:30 WAT. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Sao Paulo are 10th (upper half) with 44.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Sao Paulo, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mirassol, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sao Paulo, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Bahia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.7 xG, Sao Paulo 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 61%, draw 21%, Sao Paulo 19%.
Lower-risk option: Bahia or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Bahia to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bahia or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.50
Sao Paulo19%fair 5.32 · @3.70
2.47Expected goals
1.69Bahia xG
0.78Sao Paulo xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.7 – 0.8 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.60
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Bahia to score first
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
DLWLLW
25 Oct
@ Santos
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Flamengo
0–3
L
11 Oct
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
9 Oct
@ Palmeiras
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
15 Sep
vs Remo
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
DWWLLW
24 Oct
@ Mirassol
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Sao Paulo.
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Bahia have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sao Paulo 19%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Sao Paulo?
Bahia vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
