On Thursday 19 November the Serie A brings Gremio against Bahia at Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Gremio are 18th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 34 matches; Bahia are 6th (upper half) with 53. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Gremio, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico-MG, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Bahia, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Cruzeiro, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Gremio, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Bahia.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended Bahia 1–1 Gremio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.4 xG, Bahia 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 39%, draw 26%, Bahia 36%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.57.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–1 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.40
Bahia36%fair 2.80 · @2.90
2.68Expected goals
1.36Gremio xG
1.32Bahia xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.4 – 1.3 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gremio
Bahia
Attack vs Serie A average
-16%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+0%
Our expected goals here
1.28
1.27
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Bahia?
On our numbers Gremio have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bahia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Bahia?
Gremio vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
