Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonterrey to win ✓57% · @1.51
Double chanceMonterrey or draw ✓79% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.21
Monterrey vs Puebla: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 22 April the Liga MX brings Monterrey against Puebla at Estadio BBVA. Kick-off: 04:05 WAT. In the table, Monterrey are 10th, lower half, on 21 points after 15 matches; Puebla are 13th (lower half) with 19. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Monterrey, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Pachuca, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Puebla, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Guadalajara Chivas, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monterrey 1.9 xG, Puebla 1.2 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monterrey 57%, draw 22%, Puebla 21%.
Lower-risk option: Monterrey or draw (79%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monterrey 1–1 Puebla. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monterrey57%fair 1.74 · @1.51
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @4.30
Puebla21%fair 4.86 · @5.70
3.06Expected goals
1.89Monterrey xG
1.17Puebla xG
60%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.9 – 1.2 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monterrey
Puebla
Attack vs Liga MX average
+5%
-19%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.73
1.25
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey to win✓
57%
1.74
1.51
Double chance
Monterrey or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Draw no bet
Monterrey (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Puebla +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
First team to score
Monterrey to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Monterrey ahead at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey / FT Monterrey✓
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Monterrey – last 6
LDLLDD
19 Apr
vs Pachuca
1–3
L
12 Apr
@ Atlas
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–3
L
18 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Puebla – last 6
LLDLDL
19 Apr
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
11 Apr
vs Leon
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs FC Juarez
1–1
D
23 Mar
@ Santos Laguna
1–2
L
14 Mar
vs Necaxa
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Puebla.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Monterrey vs Puebla?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Puebla 21%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Puebla?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Puebla?
Monterrey vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 04:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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