Value bet: Waterford to win @ 3.85 – our chance 29% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDundalk to win48% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.19
Dundalk vs Waterford: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 13 March the Premier Division brings Dundalk against Waterford at Oriel Park. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Dundalk are 6th, lower half, on 45 points after 36 matches; Waterford are 7th (lower half) with 43. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Dundalk, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Galway United, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Waterford, last 4: LLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bohemians, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Dundalk, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.3 for Waterford.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Dundalk 1.6 xG, Waterford 1.4 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Dundalk 48%, draw 23%, Waterford 29%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Waterford to win @3.85 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dundalk 1–1 Waterford. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Dundalk48%fair 2.10 · @1.90
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.50
Waterford29%fair 3.44 · @3.85
3.06Expected goals
1.64Dundalk xG
1.42Waterford xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Dundalk 1.6 – 1.4 Waterford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dundalk to win
48%
2.10
1.90
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.65
1.67
Draw no bet
Dundalk (draw no bet)
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Waterford +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.81
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.12
First team to score
Dundalk to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dundalk / FT Dundalk
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.19
–
Recent results
Dundalk – last 5
DLDDD
6 Mar
@ Galway United
2–2
D
27 Feb
@ St Patrick's Athl.
0–4
L
23 Feb
@ Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Drogheda United
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Derry City
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Waterford – last 4
LLDL
6 Mar
vs Bohemians
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Derry City
2–4
L
20 Feb
vs Sligo Rovers
0–0
D
13 Feb
@ Drogheda United
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dundalk and Waterford.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Dundalk vs Waterford?
On our numbers Dundalk have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Waterford 29%.
How many goals will there be in Dundalk vs Waterford?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dundalk vs Waterford?
Our predicted score is Dundalk 1–1 Waterford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Dundalk vs Waterford?
Dundalk vs Waterford (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Oriel Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
