Value bet: Derry City to win @ 2.94 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultShelbourne to win ✗41% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.76
Shelbourne vs Derry City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derry City travel to face Shelbourne on Friday 11 September in the Premier Division, with Tolka Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Shelbourne are 4th, among the top four, on 49 points after 36 matches; Derry City are 5th (upper half) with 48. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Shelbourne, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Galway United, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Derry City, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Dundalk, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Derry City, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.3 for Shelbourne.
Head to head
When they last met (25 May 2026) it ended Derry City 0–0 Shelbourne. The last 3 head-to-heads: Shelbourne 1 win, Derry City 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Shelbourne 1.4 xG, Derry City 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Shelbourne 41%, draw 22%, Derry City 37%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Derry City to win @2.94 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Shelbourne41%fair 2.46 · @2.32
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.35
Derry City37%fair 2.71 · @2.94
2.69Expected goals
1.39Shelbourne xG
1.30Derry City xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Shelbourne 1.4 – 1.3 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
On our numbers Shelbourne have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derry City 37%.
How many goals will there be in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Tolka Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
