Value bet: Longford Town to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLongford Town to win ✗42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Finn Harps vs Longford Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Longford Town travel to face Finn Harps on Friday 22 May in the First Division, with Finn Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Finn Harps are 10th, in the drop zone, on 28 points after 36 matches; Longford Town are 5th (upper half) with 52. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Finn Harps, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Kerry, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Longford Town, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Wexford, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finn Harps 1.1 xG, Longford Town 1.4 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finn Harps 33%, draw 25%, Longford Town 42%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Longford Town to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finn Harps 1–1 Longford Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finn Harps33%fair 3.01 · @2.56
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.35
Longford Town42%fair 2.39 · @2.62
2.54Expected goals
1.10Finn Harps xG
1.43Longford Town xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.1 – 1.4 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Longford Town to win✗
42%
2.39
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Draw no bet
Longford Town (draw no bet)
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Finn Harps +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Longford Town to score first
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Longford Town / FT Longford Town✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.15
–
Recent results
Finn Harps – last 6
WWLLLL
8 May
vs Kerry
1–0
W
4 May
vs Bray Wanderers
2–1
W
1 May
@ Wexford
0–2
L
24 Apr
vs Athlone Town
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ UCD
1–2
L
10 Apr
vs Cobh Ramblers
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Longford Town – last 6
WDLDLD
8 May
@ Wexford
2–1
W
4 May
vs Athlone Town
1–1
D
1 May
@ UCD
0–2
L
17 Apr
@ Cobh Ramblers
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Athlone Town
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Treaty United
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finn Harps and Longford Town.
What is the prediction for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Longford Town 42%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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