Finn Harps 15%Draw 25%Kerry 60%Expected goals 0.81 – 1.84
85%
Betarazi pick
Kerry or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Kerry to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKerry to win ✓60% · @1.91
Double chanceKerry or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.32
Finn Harps vs Kerry: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 2 October the First Division brings Finn Harps against Kerry at Finn Park. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT.
Current form
Finn Harps, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Treaty United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Kerry, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Wexford, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Kerry, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Finn Harps.
Head to head
When they last met (24 Jul 2026) it ended Kerry 2–1 Finn Harps. The last 3 head-to-heads: Finn Harps 1 win, Kerry 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 1.7 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Finn Harps 0.8 xG, Kerry 1.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Finn Harps 15%, draw 25%, Kerry 60%.
Lower-risk option: Kerry or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Kerry to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Kerry or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finn Harps 0–1 Kerry. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Finn Harps15%fair 6.83 · @3.75
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.10
Kerry60%fair 1.66 · @1.91
2.65Expected goals
0.81Finn Harps xG
1.84Kerry xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 0.8 – 1.8 Kerry expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Kerry or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Kerry?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Kerry 60%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Kerry?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 0–1 Kerry, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Finn Harps vs Kerry (First Division) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
