Defensa Y Justicia v San Lorenzo Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDefensa Y Justicia to win ✓49% · @2.05

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.67

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.17

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:45 WAT, Saturday 3 October: Defensa Y Justicia v San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina, played at Estadio Norberto Tomaghello. In the table, Defensa Y Justicia are 14th, upper half, on 47 points after 32 matches; San Lorenzo are 18th (lower half) with 41.

Current form

Defensa Y Justicia, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Central Cordoba de Santiago, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

San Lorenzo, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Boca Juniors, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Defensa Y Justicia, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for San Lorenzo.

Head to head

When they last met (16 Mar 2026) it ended San Lorenzo 2–5 Defensa Y Justicia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Defensa Y Justicia 1.2 xG, San Lorenzo 0.8 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Defensa Y Justicia 49%, draw 25%, San Lorenzo 26%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (52%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San Lorenzo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Defensa Y Justicia49%fair 2.03 · @2.05

Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.88

San Lorenzo26%fair 3.85 · @3.90

2.04Expected goals

1.25Defensa Y Justicia xG

0.79San Lorenzo xG

48%Both score

33%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%

0–013%

1–113%

0–110%

2–010%

2–18%

From our goals model: Defensa Y Justicia 1.2 – 0.8 San Lorenzo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Defensa Y Justicia to win ✓	49%	2.03	2.05
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.33	1.40 ▲
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✓	52%	1.94	1.67
Draw no bet	Defensa Y Justicia (draw no bet) ✓	65%	1.53	–
Asian handicap	San Lorenzo +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	60%	1.65	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	85%	1.18	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	94%	1.06	–
First team to score	Defensa Y Justicia to score first ✓	53%	1.88	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	49%	2.04	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Defensa Y Justicia / FT Defensa Y Justicia ✓	27%	3.69	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	16%	6.17	–

Defensa Y Justicia – last 6

DWLWWD

18 Sep	@ Central Cordoba de Santiago	2–2	D
11 Sep	vs Gimnasia M.	2–0	W
6 Sep	@ Lanus	0–1	L
31 Aug	vs Platense	1–0	W
23 Aug	@ Belgrano Cordoba	2–1	W
17 Aug	@ Velez Sarsfield	1–1	D

1.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

San Lorenzo – last 6

LDWLDW

20 Sep	vs Boca Juniors	0–2	L
13 Sep	@ Independiente	1–1	D
5 Sep	vs Talleres Cordoba	1–0	W
1 Sep	@ Instituto Cordoba	0–1	L
22 Aug	@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	0–0	D
15 Aug	vs Union Santa Fe	1–0	W

0.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

17%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	+12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	+13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	+6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	+4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	+4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	+3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11

Team

Pts

+12

+13

-3

-8

-5

Central Cordoba de Santiago

-10

Newells Old Boys

-12

Deportivo Riestra

-7

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

On our numbers Defensa Y Justicia have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Lorenzo 26%.

How many goals will there be in Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

Our predicted score is Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San Lorenzo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?

Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Norberto Tomaghello.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Defensa Y Justicia v San Lorenzo: numbers & prediction