Value bet: Lexington to win @ 2.85 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLexington to win ✗40% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.92
Orange County SC vs Lexington: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Orange County SC v Lexington in the USL Championship, played at Championship Soccer Stadium. In the table, Orange County SC are 9th, lower half, on 39 points after 30 matches; Lexington are 4th (among the top four) with 48.
Current form
Orange County SC, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FC Tulsa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Lexington, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Rhode Island, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Orange County SC, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Lexington.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Orange County SC 1.3 xG, Lexington 1.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Orange County SC 36%, draw 23%, Lexington 40%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Lexington to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Orange County SC 1–1 Lexington. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Orange County SC36%fair 2.75 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.25
Lexington40%fair 2.48 · @2.85
2.82Expected goals
1.26Orange County SC xG
1.57Lexington xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–07%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 1.3 – 1.6 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Orange County SC
Lexington
Attack vs USL Championship average
-4%
+45%
Goals conceded vs average
+30%
-0%
Our expected goals here
1.45
2.29
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✗
40%
2.48
2.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.73
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Orange County SC +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.92
–
Recent results
Orange County SC – last 6
WWLDWW
12 Apr
@ FC Tulsa
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs New Mexico United
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lexington – last 6
LLLWWD
12 Apr
vs Rhode Island
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–2
L
26 Mar
vs Brooklyn
3–0
W
20 Mar
vs Flower City Union
9–0
W
15 Mar
vs Sacramento Republic
0–0
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and Lexington.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs Lexington?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Lexington?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lexington 40%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 1–1 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs Lexington?
Orange County SC vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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