Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✗79% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 4 July the USL Championship brings Tampa Bay Rowdies against Lexington at Al Lang Stadium. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st, leading the league, on 61 points after 30 matches; Lexington are 4th (among the top four) with 48. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tampa Bay Rowdies, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Brooklyn, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Lexington, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Indy Eleven, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.7 xG, Lexington 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tampa Bay Rowdies 55%, draw 24%, Lexington 21%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–1 Lexington. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tampa Bay Rowdies55%fair 1.82 · @1.60
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.75
Lexington21%fair 4.68 · @4.75
2.78Expected goals
1.68Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
1.10Lexington xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.7 – 1.1 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Lexington
Attack vs USL Championship average
+12%
+45%
Goals conceded vs average
-25%
-0%
Our expected goals here
1.67
1.32
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✗
55%
1.82
1.60
Double chance
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Draw no bet
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw no bet)✗
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Lexington +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Tampa Bay Rowdies to score first✗
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tampa Bay Rowdies / FT Tampa Bay Rowdies✗
31%
3.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WLDWWW
21 Jun
@ Brooklyn
2–0
W
14 Jun
vs Hartford Athletic
0–1
L
11 Jun
vs Charleston Battery
2–2
D
7 Jun
@ Sporting JAX
2–0
W
31 May
@ Louisville City
2–0
W
24 May
vs Phoenix Rising
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lexington – last 6
DWWLWL
21 Jun
vs Indy Eleven
0–0
D
14 Jun
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
31 May
@ El Paso Locomotive
4–1
W
24 May
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
9 May
vs Monterey Bay
3–1
W
3 May
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Lexington.
What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
On our numbers Tampa Bay Rowdies have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lexington 21%.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–1 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Al Lang Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
