Lexington vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lexington welcome New Mexico United to Toyota Stadium for a USL Championship fixture on Thursday 16 July (00:00 WAT). In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52.
Current form
Lexington, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Louisville City, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
New Mexico United, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over El Paso Locomotive, away. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours New Mexico United, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Lexington.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 1.7 xG, New Mexico United 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 52%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 24%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 1–1 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington52%fair 1.93 · @1.67
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.65
New Mexico United24%fair 4.10 · @4.40
2.87Expected goals
1.66Lexington xG
1.21New Mexico United xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–17%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.7 – 1.2 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lexington
New Mexico United
Attack vs USL Championship average
+45%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
-22%
Our expected goals here
1.69
1.50
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✗
52%
1.93
1.67
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)✗
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
New Mexico United +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Lexington – last 6
LWDWWL
12 Jul
@ Louisville City
2–4
L
4 Jul
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–1
W
21 Jun
vs Indy Eleven
0–0
D
14 Jun
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
31 May
@ El Paso Locomotive
4–1
W
24 May
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
WWDWDW
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2 Jul
vs Atlante FC
3–3
D
21 Jun
@ Sacramento Republic
1–0
W
14 Jun
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Phoenix Rising
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lexington vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Lexington have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and New Mexico United 24%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs New Mexico United?
Lexington vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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