Lexington 64%Draw 21%Monterey Bay 15%Expected goals 2.14 – 0.93
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultLexington to win ✓64% · @1.55
Double chanceLexington or draw ✓85% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Lexington vs Monterey Bay: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 2 August: Lexington v Monterey Bay in the USL Championship, played at Toyota Stadium. In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; Monterey Bay are 12th (in the drop zone) with 24. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lexington, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FC Tulsa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Monterey Bay, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Orange County SC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lexington, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Monterey Bay.
Head to head
When they last met (9 May 2026) it ended Lexington 3–1 Monterey Bay.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 2.1 xG, Monterey Bay 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 64%, draw 21%, Monterey Bay 15%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 2–0 Monterey Bay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lexington64%fair 1.56 · @1.55
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.95
Monterey Bay15%fair 6.77 · @5.10
3.08Expected goals
2.14Lexington xG
0.93Monterey Bay xG
59%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lexington 2.1 – 0.9 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lexington
Monterey Bay
Attack vs USL Championship average
+45%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-0%
+13%
Our expected goals here
2.45
1.06
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Lexington have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monterey Bay 15%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Lexington 2–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Lexington vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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