Value bet: Forward Madison to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSarasota Paradise to win ✗38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.56
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Forward Madison travel to face Sarasota Paradise on Sunday 3 May in the USL League One, with Premier Sports Campus the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Sarasota Paradise are 11th, lower half, on 40 points after 32 matches; Forward Madison are 4th (among the top four) with 56. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sarasota Paradise, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Tampa Bay Rowdies, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Forward Madison, last 4: LWLW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Lexington, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Forward Madison, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Sarasota Paradise.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sarasota Paradise 1.3 xG, Forward Madison 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sarasota Paradise 38%, draw 26%, Forward Madison 36%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Forward Madison to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Forward Madison. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sarasota Paradise38%fair 2.62 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.20
Forward Madison36%fair 2.76 · @3.10
2.55Expected goals
1.25Sarasota Paradise xG
1.29Forward Madison xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Sarasota Paradise 1.3 – 1.3 Forward Madison expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarasota Paradise to win✗
38%
2.62
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.80
Draw no bet
Sarasota Paradise (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Sarasota Paradise +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Forward Madison to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Forward Madison / FT Forward Madison✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.56
–
Recent results
Sarasota Paradise – last 6
LWLLLW
26 Apr
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–2
L
22 Apr
vs Corpus Christi
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Naples
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Westchester SC
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs One Knoxville
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Portland Hearts of Pine
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Forward Madison – last 4
LWLW
26 Apr
@ Lexington
2–4
L
29 Mar
@ Naples
1–0
W
19 Mar
@ Flint City Bucks
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ One Knoxville
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarasota Paradise and Forward Madison.
What is the prediction for Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
On our numbers Sarasota Paradise have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Forward Madison 36%.
How many goals will there be in Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Our predicted score is Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Forward Madison, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison (USL League One) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Premier Sports Campus.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
