Value bet: Leones Negros UDG to win @ 2.68 – our chance 53% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +43%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeones Negros UDG to win ✗53% · @2.68
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones Negros UDG welcome Tepatitlán to Estadio Jalisco for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 15 February (19:00 WAT). In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 2.2 xG, Tepatitlán 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 53%, draw 20%, Tepatitlán 27%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Leones Negros UDG to win @2.68 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG53%fair 1.88 · @2.68
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.30
Tepatitlán27%fair 3.70 · @2.52
3.16Expected goals
2.17Leones Negros UDG xG
0.99Tepatitlán xG
58%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 2.2 – 1.0 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+21%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
+47%
Our expected goals here
3.30
0.74
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win✗
53%
1.88
2.68 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Leones Negros UDG (draw no bet)
66%
1.51
–
Asian handicap
Leones Negros UDG -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.11
First team to score
Leones Negros UDG to score first✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Leones Negros UDG ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Leones Negros UDG
No recent results on record.
Tepatitlán
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Tepatitlán 27%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
