Value bet: Leones Negros UDG to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlebrijes de Oaxaca to win ✗38% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.59
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 28 March the Liga De Expansión MX brings Alebrijes de Oaxaca against Leones Negros UDG. Kick-off: 02:00 WAT. In the table, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th, lower half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to CA La Paz, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Leones Negros UDG, last 4: DLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Dorados, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.4 xG, Leones Negros UDG 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alebrijes de Oaxaca 38%, draw 25%, Leones Negros UDG 37%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Leones Negros UDG to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca38%fair 2.61 · @2.12
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.45
Leones Negros UDG37%fair 2.70 · @3.25
2.84Expected goals
1.35Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
1.49Leones Negros UDG xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.4 – 1.5 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Leones Negros UDG
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-23%
+21%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.23
1.63
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win✗
38%
2.61
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw no bet)
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Alebrijes de Oaxaca +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Leones Negros UDG to score first✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✗
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.59
–
Recent results
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
LWLWLD
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 4
DLDD
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Leones Negros UDG 37%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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