Value bet: CA La Paz to win @ 2.26 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCA La Paz to win ✗52% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 28 March the Liga De Expansión MX brings CA La Paz against CDS Tampico Madero at Estadio Guaycura. Kick-off: 04:00 WAT. In the table, CA La Paz are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 15 matches; CDS Tampico Madero are 14th (in the drop zone) with 15. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
CA La Paz, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Alebrijes de Oaxaca, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
CDS Tampico Madero, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Tlaxcala, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CA La Paz 1.9 xG, CDS Tampico Madero 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CA La Paz 52%, draw 22%, CDS Tampico Madero 26%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: CA La Paz to win @2.26 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: CA La Paz 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CA La Paz52%fair 1.91 · @2.26
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.40
CDS Tampico Madero26%fair 3.91 · @3.00
2.91Expected goals
1.93CA La Paz xG
0.99CDS Tampico Madero xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–010%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 1.9 – 1.0 CDS Tampico Madero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
CA La Paz
CDS Tampico Madero
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+32%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-3%
Our expected goals here
2.36
0.80
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✗
52%
1.91
2.26 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Draw no bet
CA La Paz (draw no bet)
67%
1.49
–
Asian handicap
CDS Tampico Madero +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.12
First team to score
CA La Paz to score first✗
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
CA La Paz ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
CA La Paz – last 5
WDWWL
21 Mar
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Cancún
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
2–0
W
5 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
3–0
W
1 Mar
@ Monarcas
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
CDS Tampico Madero – last 5
DWLWW
23 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
3–1
W
14 Mar
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–1
L
9 Mar
vs Dorados
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Cancún
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and CDS Tampico Madero.
What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CDS Tampico Madero 26%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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