Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alebrijes de Oaxaca travel to face Tepatitlán on Saturday 4 April in the Liga De Expansión MX – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, Tepatitlán are 16th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tepatitlán, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Cancún, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Leones Negros UDG, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tepatitlán, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tepatitlán 1.6 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.2 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tepatitlán 54%, draw 23%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 23%.
Lower-risk option: Tepatitlán or draw (77%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tepatitlán 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tepatitlán54%fair 1.84 · @1.54
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @4.10
Alebrijes de Oaxaca23%fair 4.44 · @5.70
2.81Expected goals
1.63Tepatitlán xG
1.18Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 1.6 – 1.2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tepatitlán
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-30%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
+10%
Our expected goals here
1.42
1.39
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tepatitlán to win✓
54%
1.84
1.54
Double chance
Tepatitlán or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.73
Draw no bet
Tepatitlán (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Alebrijes de Oaxaca +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.15
First team to score
Tepatitlán to score first✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tepatitlán / FT Tepatitlán✓
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Tepatitlán – last 6
DWLWLW
29 Mar
@ Cancún
2–2
D
21 Mar
vs Venados FC
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Monarcas
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tlaxcala
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Irapuato
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
DLWLWL
28 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tepatitlán and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 23%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Tepatitlán 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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