Value bet: Fredrikstad to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFredrikstad to win ✗38% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Saturday 11 July: Fredrikstad v Lillestrom in the Eliteserien, played at Fredrikstad Stadion. In the table, Fredrikstad are 12th, lower half, on 30 points after 26 matches; Lillestrom are 4th (among the top four) with 45. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Fredrikstad, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Valerenga, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Lillestrom, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FC Midtjylland, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Fredrikstad, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Lillestrom.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fredrikstad 1.4 xG, Lillestrom 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fredrikstad 38%, draw 25%, Lillestrom 37%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Fredrikstad to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fredrikstad 1–1 Lillestrom. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fredrikstad38%fair 2.66 · @2.90
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.45
Lillestrom37%fair 2.67 · @2.30
2.81Expected goals
1.44Fredrikstad xG
1.36Lillestrom xG
62%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Fredrikstad 1.4 – 1.4 Lillestrom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fredrikstad to win✗
38%
2.66
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.60
Draw no bet
Fredrikstad (draw no bet)✗
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Lillestrom +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
First team to score
Fredrikstad to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fredrikstad / FT Fredrikstad✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.66
–
Recent results
Fredrikstad – last 6
LWDLLW
4 Jul
@ Valerenga
1–3
L
29 May
vs Start
2–1
W
25 May
@ Sandefjord
1–1
D
9 May
@ Sarpsborg 08 FF
1–2
L
19 Apr
@ Kristiansund BK
0–2
L
7 Apr
@ Aalesund
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lillestrom – last 6
LLLLWD
20 Jun
@ FC Midtjylland
0–1
L
25 May
@ Ham-Kam
0–2
L
20 May
vs Kristiansund BK
1–2
L
10 May
@ Rosenborg
0–2
L
3 May
vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
4–0
W
15 Apr
@ Tromso
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fredrikstad and Lillestrom.
What is the prediction for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
On our numbers Fredrikstad have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lillestrom 37%.
How many goals will there be in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Our predicted score is Fredrikstad 1–1 Lillestrom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom (Eliteserien) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
