Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHJK Helsinki to win ✓76% · @1.20
Double chanceHJK Helsinki or draw ✓91% · fair 1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.02
HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 30 May the Veikkausliiga brings HJK Helsinki against Mariehamn at Bolt Arena. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, HJK Helsinki are 2nd on 59 points after 32 matches; Mariehamn are 6th with 19. There are 40 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
HJK Helsinki, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 11–1 win over MyPa, at home. 3.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Mariehamn, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lahti, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours HJK Helsinki, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Mariehamn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give HJK Helsinki 2.5 xG, Mariehamn 0.7 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – HJK Helsinki 76%, draw 15%, Mariehamn 9%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was HJK Helsinki to win (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: HJK Helsinki 2–0 Mariehamn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
HJK Helsinki76%fair 1.32 · @1.20
Draw15%fair 6.47 · @5.50
Mariehamn9%fair 11.08 · @13.00
3.24Expected goals
2.50HJK Helsinki xG
0.75Mariehamn xG
57%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
3–010%
1–010%
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: HJK Helsinki 2.5 – 0.7 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HJK Helsinki to win✓
76%
1.32
1.20
Double chance
HJK Helsinki or draw✓
91%
1.10
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
HJK Helsinki (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
HJK Helsinki -1 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.21
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
First team to score
HJK Helsinki to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
HJK Helsinki ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HJK Helsinki / FT HJK Helsinki✗
52%
1.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.02
–
Recent results
HJK Helsinki – last 6
WLWWDD
26 May
vs MyPa
11–1
W
22 May
@ VPS
1–2
L
13 May
@ Rops
4–0
W
4 May
vs Lahti
1–0
W
29 Apr
@ Inter Turku
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ KuPS
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 6
LLWDWL
26 May
vs Lahti
0–1
L
23 May
@ FF Jaro
0–3
L
13 May
vs PuiU Helsinki
3–0
W
10 May
@ Lahti
1–1
D
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ SJK
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HJK Helsinki and Mariehamn.
What is the prediction for HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
Our pick is HJK Helsinki to win with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers HJK Helsinki have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Mariehamn 9%.
How many goals will there be in HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is HJK Helsinki 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn?
HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Bolt Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
