Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.45 – our chance 52% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Moron to win37% · @2.50
Double chanceDeportivo Moron or draw69% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.45
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–27% · fair 13.50
Almagro vs Deportivo Moron: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Almagro welcome Deportivo Moron to Estadio Tres de Febrero for a Primera Nacional fixture on Saturday 28 March (19:30 WAT). In the table, Almagro are 15th, lower half, on 42 points after 36 matches; Deportivo Moron are 3rd (among the top four) with 61. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Almagro, last 3: DLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Midland, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almagro 1.1 xG, Deportivo Moron 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 32%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almagro 31%, draw 32%, Deportivo Moron 37%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Moron or draw (69%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.45.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almagro 1–1 Deportivo Moron. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almagro31%fair 3.24 · @3.75
Draw32%fair 3.16 · @2.30
Deportivo Moron37%fair 2.67 · @2.50
2.20Expected goals
1.10Almagro xG
1.11Deportivo Moron xG
52%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Almagro 1.1 – 1.1 Deportivo Moron expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Almagro
Deportivo Moron
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
+5%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
+23%
+12%
Our expected goals here
1.45
1.24
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Moron to win
37%
2.67
2.50
Double chance
Deportivo Moron or draw
69%
1.45
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
2.45 ▲
Draw no bet
Deportivo Moron (draw no bet)
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Almagro +0.5 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
58%
1.73
1.83 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Deportivo Moron to score first
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Moron / FT Deportivo Moron
20%
5.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
7%
13.50
–
Recent results
Almagro – last 3
DLD
15 Mar
@ Midland
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Deportivo Moron – last 1
W
26 Feb
@ Godoy Cruz
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almagro and Deportivo Moron.
What is the prediction for Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
On our numbers Almagro have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Deportivo Moron 37%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
Our predicted score is Almagro 1–1 Deportivo Moron, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs Deportivo Moron?
Almagro vs Deportivo Moron (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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