Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAurora to win ✓57% · @1.77
Double chanceAurora or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Aurora vs Achuapa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Sunday 29 March: Aurora v Achuapa in the Liga Nacional, played at Estadio Guillermo Slowing. In the table, Aurora are 11th, in the drop zone, on 20 points after 22 matches; Achuapa are 12th (in the drop zone) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Aurora, last 5: DLLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Malacateco, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Achuapa, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Mictlán, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aurora 1.7 xG, Achuapa 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aurora 57%, draw 25%, Achuapa 17%.
Lower-risk option: Aurora or draw (83%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aurora 2–0 Achuapa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aurora57%fair 1.75 · @1.77
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.20
Achuapa17%fair 5.78 · @4.50
2.44Expected goals
1.68Aurora xG
0.76Achuapa xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Aurora 1.7 – 0.8 Achuapa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Aurora
Achuapa
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
+8%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.86
0.76
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aurora to win✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Double chance
Aurora or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Aurora (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Achuapa +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Aurora to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aurora / FT Aurora✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.71
–
Recent results
Aurora – last 6
DLLLDD
23 Mar
@ Malacateco
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Guastatoya
0–1
L
16 Mar
@ Municipal
1–4
L
11 Mar
@ Mictlán
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Xelajú
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Mixco
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Achuapa – last 6
LLLLDD
21 Mar
vs Mictlán
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ Mixco
0–1
L
9 Mar
@ Comunicaciones
0–4
L
5 Mar
@ Antigua GFC
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Xelajú
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Malacateco
1–1
D
0.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aurora and Achuapa.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Aurora vs Achuapa?
On our numbers Aurora have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Achuapa 17%.
How many goals will there be in Aurora vs Achuapa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aurora vs Achuapa?
Our predicted score is Aurora 2–0 Achuapa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aurora vs Achuapa?
Aurora vs Achuapa (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guillermo Slowing.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
