Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 56% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Atletico to win ✓44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.69
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Wednesday 4 March: Alianza Atletico v Deportivo Garcilaso in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, played at Estadio Mansiche.
Current form
Alianza Atletico, last 3: DDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with ADT, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Atletico 1.4 xG, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Atletico 44%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso 30%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.49, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Atletico 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Atletico44%fair 2.28 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.15
Deportivo Garcilaso30%fair 3.30 · @3.45
2.63Expected goals
1.37Alianza Atletico xG
1.25Deportivo Garcilaso xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.4 – 1.3 Deportivo Garcilaso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Atletico to win✓
44%
2.28
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza Atletico (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Garcilaso +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.04
First team to score
Alianza Atletico to score first✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Atletico / FT Alianza Atletico✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Alianza Atletico – last 3
DDD
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Cienciano
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Alianza Lima
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Deportivo Garcilaso – last 2
LL
28 Feb
vs Cienciano
2–3
L
23 Feb
@ UCV Moquegua
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Atletico and Deportivo Garcilaso.
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo Garcilaso 30%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mansiche.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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