Value bet: FBC Melgar to win @ 2.98 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCienciano to win ✗38% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.05
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cienciano welcome FBC Melgar to Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega for a CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixture on Friday 6 March (01:30 WAT).
Current form
Cienciano, last 3: WDL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Deportivo Garcilaso, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cienciano 1.4 xG, FBC Melgar 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cienciano 38%, draw 25%, FBC Melgar 37%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: FBC Melgar to win @2.98 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cienciano 1–1 FBC Melgar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cienciano38%fair 2.66 · @2.24
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.45
FBC Melgar37%fair 2.67 · @2.98
2.73Expected goals
1.37Cienciano xG
1.36FBC Melgar xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Cienciano 1.4 – 1.4 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cienciano to win✗
38%
2.66
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Draw no bet
Cienciano (draw no bet)
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
FBC Melgar +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Cienciano to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cienciano / FT Cienciano✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.05
–
Recent results
Cienciano – last 3
WDL
28 Feb
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
3–2
W
22 Feb
vs Alianza Atletico
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Universitario
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 2
LW
27 Feb
vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs UCV Moquegua
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cienciano and FBC Melgar.
What is the prediction for Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Cienciano have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FBC Melgar 37%.
How many goals will there be in Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Cienciano 1–1 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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