Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEngland to win ✗56% · @1.53
Double chanceEngland or draw ✗80% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.43
England vs Japan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Japan travel to face England on Tuesday 31 March in the Friendlies, with Wembley Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give England 1.4 xG, Japan 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – England 56%, draw 24%, Japan 20%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: England 1–0 Japan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
England56%fair 1.80 · @1.53
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.95
Japan20%fair 4.92 · @6.00
2.26Expected goals
1.38England xG
0.88Japan xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–010%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: England 1.4 – 0.9 Japan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
England
Japan
Attack vs Friendlies average
-4%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
-17%
Our expected goals here
1.36
1.19
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
England to win✗
56%
1.80
1.53
Double chance
England or draw✗
80%
1.26
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
England (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Japan +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.11
First team to score
England to score first✗
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT England / FT England✗
29%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.43
–
Recent results
England – last 1
D
27 Mar
vs Uruguay
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Japan
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between England and Japan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win England vs Japan?
On our numbers England have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Japan 20%.
How many goals will there be in England vs Japan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for England vs Japan?
Our predicted score is England 1–0 Japan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is England vs Japan?
England vs Japan (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Wembley Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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