Value bet: Liberia to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLibya to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗73% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.16
Liberia vs Libya: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Tuesday 31 March: Liberia v Libya in the Friendlies.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liberia 0.6 xG, Libya 0.8 xG – a total near 1.4. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liberia 33%, draw 25%, Libya 42%.
GG/NG: NG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Liberia to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.37, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liberia 0–0 Libya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liberia33%fair 3.01 · @3.30
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.90
Libya42%fair 2.37 · @2.20
1.35Expected goals
0.60Liberia xG
0.75Libya xG
44%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–026%
0–119%
1–016%
1–112%
0–27%
2–05%
From our goals model: Liberia 0.6 – 0.8 Libya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libya to win✗
42%
2.37
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Draw no bet
Libya (draw no bet)
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Liberia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.50 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
99%
1.01
–
First team to score
Libya to score first✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.16
–
Recent results
Liberia – last 1
L
27 Mar
@ Benin
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Libya – last 1
D
27 Mar
vs Niger
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liberia and Libya.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Liberia vs Libya?
On our numbers Liberia have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Libya 42%.
How many goals will there be in Liberia vs Libya?
We expect about 1.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liberia vs Libya?
Our predicted score is Liberia 0–0 Libya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.4 goals in total.
When is Liberia vs Libya?
Liberia vs Libya (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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