USA 31%Draw 22%Portugal 47%Expected goals 1.66 – 1.57
81%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: USA to win @ 4.50 – our chance 31% vs 22% implied by the price (edge +39%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPortugal to win ✓47% · @1.68
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.37
USA vs Portugal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 1 April the Friendlies brings USA against Portugal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give USA 1.7 xG, Portugal 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – USA 31%, draw 22%, Portugal 47%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: USA to win @4.50 – the bookmaker implies 22%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: USA 1–1 Portugal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
USA31%fair 3.23 · @4.50
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.95
Portugal47%fair 2.12 · @1.68
3.23Expected goals
1.66USA xG
1.57Portugal xG
65%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: USA 1.7 – 1.6 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
USA
Portugal
Attack vs Friendlies average
+37%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
-16%
Our expected goals here
1.98
1.18
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugal to win✓
47%
2.12
1.68
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.54
1.60
Draw no bet
Portugal (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Portugal +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
First team to score
USA to score first✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.64
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA / FT USA✗
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.37
–
Recent results
USA
No recent results on record.
Portugal – last 1
D
29 Mar
@ Mexico
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Portugal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win USA vs Portugal?
On our numbers USA have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Portugal 47%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Portugal?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Portugal?
Our predicted score is USA 1–1 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is USA vs Portugal?
USA vs Portugal (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Argentina5
Zambia0
Brazil3
Croatia1
Mexico1
Belgium1