Value bet: Cerezo Osaka to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNagoya Grampus to win ✓40% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.64
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 4 April the J1 League brings Nagoya Grampus against Cerezo Osaka at Toyota Stadium. Kick-off: 07:00 WAT. In the table, Nagoya Grampus are 3rd, among the top four, on 31 points after 18 matches; Cerezo Osaka are 2nd (among the top four) with 31. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nagoya Grampus, last 4: WLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sanfrecce Hiroshima, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Cerezo Osaka, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Fagiano Okayama, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nagoya Grampus 1.5 xG, Cerezo Osaka 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nagoya Grampus 40%, draw 24%, Cerezo Osaka 35%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Cerezo Osaka to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nagoya Grampus40%fair 2.47 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.45
Cerezo Osaka35%fair 2.84 · @3.10
2.86Expected goals
1.47Nagoya Grampus xG
1.39Cerezo Osaka xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Nagoya Grampus 1.5 – 1.4 Cerezo Osaka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nagoya Grampus to win✓
40%
2.47
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.67
Draw no bet
Nagoya Grampus (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Cerezo Osaka +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Nagoya Grampus to score first✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nagoya Grampus / FT Nagoya Grampus✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.64
–
Recent results
Nagoya Grampus – last 4
WLWL
18 Mar
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2–1
W
14 Mar
vs Vissel Kobe
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Avispa Fukuoka
5–1
W
21 Feb
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka – last 5
LWLLW
18 Mar
vs Fagiano Okayama
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Kyoto Sanga
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ V-varen Nagasaki
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Avispa Fukuoka
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka.
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
On our numbers Nagoya Grampus have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerezo Osaka 35%.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 07:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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