Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlianza to win ✓63% · @1.20
Double chanceAlianza or draw ✓85% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Alianza vs Hércules: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 5 April: Alianza v Hércules in the Primera Division.
Current form
Alianza, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Isidro Metapán, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Hércules, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Zacatecoluca, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Alianza, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Hércules.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza 1.9 xG, Hércules 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza 63%, draw 21%, Hércules 15%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza 1–1 Hércules. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza63%fair 1.58 · @1.20
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @4.80
Hércules15%fair 6.46 · @16.00
2.94Expected goals
1.87Alianza xG
1.07Hércules xG
56%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Alianza 1.9 – 1.1 Hércules expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza
Hércules
Attack vs Primera Division average
-1%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+8%
Our expected goals here
1.57
1.29
Our own ratings from every Primera Division result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza to win✓
63%
1.58
1.20
Double chance
Alianza or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Alianza (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Hércules +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Alianza to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Alianza ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza / FT Alianza✓
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Alianza – last 6
DDWLDW
2 Apr
@ Isidro Metapán
0–0
D
29 Mar
vs Platense
3–3
D
19 Mar
vs Cacahuatique
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Inter
0–2
L
13 Mar
@ Zacatecoluca
3–3
D
8 Mar
vs Fuerte San Francisco
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Hércules – last 6
WLLDLL
1 Apr
vs Zacatecoluca
2–0
W
26 Mar
vs Águila
0–1
L
19 Mar
@ FAS
0–4
L
8 Mar
@ Isidro Metapán
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Firpo
2–3
L
18 Feb
vs Cacahuatique
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza and Hércules.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Alianza vs Hércules?
On our numbers Alianza have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Hércules 15%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza vs Hércules?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza vs Hércules?
Our predicted score is Alianza 1–1 Hércules, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alianza vs Hércules?
Alianza vs Hércules (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
